Nov 16, 2008

Weekly Watch: Nov 16, 2008

Hello..stuff to watch out for this week:
  1. G20 meeting
    I do not expect any significant fiscal plan to emerge from the G20's meeting this weekend. All countries are already trying their best to keep their economies from slipping into recession and any fiscal/monetary plans announced should not be considered the result of the G20. The event is largely political
  2. General Motors Bailout
    US Congress and the current Bush administration will work on bailing out General Motors (GM). While the consequences of GM failing will be severe both politically and economically for the US, it remains to be seen how a comprehensive bailout plan can be worked out with Republican opposition.  The most likely outcome is a stop-gap measure to keep the automakers alive till Obama takes office in Jan.
  3. US Inflation data
    US inflation data, to be released this week, is expected to be negative. While the data in itself is not too important, if followed by subsequent negative core-inflation data points it will point to contracting consumer spending and corporate investment in the future.
  4. Details of Paulson's new plan for consumers (high market impact)
    This is important for the market trader. If Paulson announces a credible plan to address the problem of diminishing consumer credit, markets and commodities, which are in highly oversold territory, may give a sharp upward move.
  5. Possible rate cut in India 
    India reported 9% yoy inflation this Thursday - the first single digit number in many months (read about how india calculated inflation). This gives the RBI room to further cut interest rates to stimulate growth in a slowing economy..
  6. India's GDP number to come towards Nov end
    I don't have the exact dates with me right now.. but India's quarterly GDP growth number is expected towards the end of November. The PM's forecast has been between 7% - 7.5% I'd take the forecast pretty seriously since its from the Prime Minister.. my estimate is around 7.4%; the bad GDP numbers should start coming out around next quarter.. read an interesting article on the Indian GDP on Ajay Shah's blog

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