The World in 2009

hello...my first post in some time..2009 is here and Jan hasn't been a good month for global markets.. economic data continues to be weak, central banks continue to lower rate, banks continue to not lend, and governments around the world continue to (thankfully) try to sort out the economic mess we're all in.. 

2009 promises to be a very challenging year for economics growth and financial markets. Its baked into expectations that growth in the OECD economies will be absent. Emerging markets, esp. India and China, are slowing down as well.. bottom line is that growth will stagnate and there will be degrowth in many economies..

The key to figuring out 2009 probably lies in figuring out whether the financial crisis will deepen or conditions become more benign. The second, and equally important, factor that will determine the course of 2009 will be confidence.. 

The largest threat to financial stability is the dollar and the US treasury bill market this year..

more to come soon..